The debate over the value of wins in college football continues to rage on, especially as the playoff rankings come out each week. Teams like Indiana, with a 10-1 record in the Big Ten, question why they aren’t in the playoff conversation despite their impressive record. On the other hand, the Big 12 commissioner is adamant that his conference deserves a spot in the playoff over a Group of 5 champion, citing strength of schedule and other metrics.
But how do we really measure the worth of a win? Using FPI’s pre-game win expectation, we can gauge the difficulty of each victory. For example, Indiana’s 10-1 record may not have come against top-tier opponents, but the odds of winning all 10 games were only about 12%. On the other hand, Texas, with a similar record, had a higher likelihood of winning their games due to a softer schedule.
Strength of schedule is another factor to consider when evaluating a team’s performance. Indiana’s schedule strength jumped significantly after playing Ohio State, but their record remained the same. This is where metrics like ESPN’s Strength of Record come into play, ranking teams based on both opponent strength and actual outcomes.
The committee’s decisions often spark controversy, especially when teams with impressive records like UNLV or Duke are left out of the rankings. UNLV, with wins over quality opponents, finds themselves at a disadvantage compared to other Group of 5 teams, leading to frustration among fans and players alike.
Notre Dame, despite their 10-1 record, faces uncertainty in the playoff rankings due to a loss to Northern Illinois early in the season. While they have a strong case for a playoff spot, the committee’s emphasis on conference champions could potentially leave them on the outside looking in.
As the playoff picture unfolds, teams and fans alike are left questioning the criteria used to determine playoff berths. The value of wins, strength of schedule, and quality of losses all play a role in shaping the playoff landscape, making each week of college football a rollercoaster of emotions and debates.
