The New York Giants recently decided not to franchise Saquon Barkley for the second year in a row. The team respected Barkley enough to not offer him a lowball contract, and owner John Mara did express some desire to keep him. However, the Giants ultimately chose not to prioritize signing a running back in free agency, opting to wait until the second week to make any moves in that area. They were also counting on Barkley not receiving a $12 million per year offer, especially with other running backs like Tony Pollard and Josh Jacobs available in free agency.
Ultimately, the Giants were not willing to pay a 27-year-old running back $12 million a year, which led the Philadelphia Eagles to swoop in and offer Barkley $12.5 million per season on a three-year contract. General manager Joe Schoen’s rationale for this decision was based on data that suggests running backs tend to decline after the age of 27. When Frank Gore, who holds the record for the most rushing yards by a player in his 30s in NFL history, inquired about this, Schoen pointed to the data and Barkley’s workload as key factors in their decision-making process.
Looking at the statistics for running backs before and after the age of 27, there is a mixed bag of results. Players like Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey have seen an increase in yards per game after turning 27, while others like Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliott have experienced a decline. Frank Gore is an outlier, playing well into his 30s, while Aaron Jones has actually improved since hitting the age of 27.
While the data may suggest a general trend of decline for running backs after 27, there are certainly exceptions and variations among individual players. McCaffrey, for example, has only played one season at 27, so it remains to be seen how his performance will evolve in the coming years. Jones, on the other hand, has continued to be a consistent performer even after turning 27.
In the end, the decision to let Barkley walk in free agency may have been based on data and trends, but as this small sample size of running backs shows, there is no exact science to predicting how a player will perform as they age. Time will tell whether the Giants made the right call or not, regardless of how Barkley fares in Philadelphia.
