In the 2024 NFL Draft, six quarterbacks were chosen within the top 12 picks, putting these rookies in the spotlight more than ever. Their performance will be scrutinized from every angle, comparing them with other rookies, historical rookie quarterbacks, the rest of the league, and the quarterbacks they are replacing. Looking back at history, it’s a toss-up whether they will surpass their predecessors in their rookie seasons. Out of 44 qualified seasons by rookie quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2001, 23 of them outperformed their team’s quarterback from the previous season in terms of expected points added (EPA) per play. For instance, C.J. Stroud outshone Davis Mills for the Texans in 2023, and Justin Herbert matched Philip Rivers’ play for the Chargers in 2020.
One surprising case was Zach Wilson surpassing Sam Darnold, indicating the struggles the Jets have faced at the quarterback position. Similarly, Drake Maye slightly outperformed Mac Jones for the Patriots in 2023, showing potential for improvement. Looking ahead to the 2024 season, here’s a ranking of rookie quarterbacks most likely to outperform their predecessors.
Starting with J.J. McCarthy for the Vikings, he faces a tough challenge in surpassing Kirk Cousins, who was a top-10 quarterback before his injury in 2023. McCarthy’s future is uncertain as he competes with Sam Darnold for the starting role. Next, Michael Penix Jr. has an opportunity with the Falcons following Desmond Ridder’s struggles last season. Penix’s potential to elevate the team’s performance hinges on Cousins’ health and playing time.
Drake Maye with the Patriots may offer a similar level of play to Mac Jones in 2023, given the team’s offensive limitations. However, Maye’s mobility could provide an added dimension to the offense. Bo Nix for the Broncos has the chance to shine under coach Sean Payton, especially with Russell Wilson’s declining numbers in 2023. Nix’s college achievements and style of play could translate well to the NFL.
Caleb Williams joining the Bears inherits a strong receiving corps, potentially improving on Justin Fields’ performance from last season. The coaching staff’s impact on Williams’ development will be crucial for his success. Finally, Jayden Daniels for the Commanders, coming off a Heisman-winning season in 2023, seems poised to outplay Sam Howell. With offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s guidance, Daniels’ skill set and potential could lead to a successful rookie campaign.
Considering the low bar set by the quarterbacks being replaced, two or three of these rookies are likely to surpass their predecessors. The 2024 season holds promise for these young quarterbacks to make their mark in the NFL and potentially outshine those who came before them.