The general public who bet on sports usually focus on predicting the winners of games or matches. They tend to place small bets in the hopes of winning big. There’s nothing wrong with this approach, but professional bettor Rufus Peabody prefers a different strategy. In the recent Open Championship, Peabody placed almost $2 million in bets across eight players, betting on each of them not to win the tournament.
Peabody’s strategy is straightforward: he bets when he believes there is an advantage. He looks for opportunities to bet on golfers at long odds, as well as to bet against them at short odds. This approach can help to grow one’s bankroll over time. An example of this strategy is Peabody’s six-figure bet against Tiger Woods winning the British Open.
In order to explain his bets and his success in the Open, Peabody shared some insights into his decision-making process. He and his group bet $330,000 on Woods not winning, with the potential to win only $1,000. While this may seem illogical to many, Peabody’s analysis showed that Woods’ actual odds of winning were much lower than what the sportsbooks had predicted.
Peabody and his team applied this same strategy to seven other golfers, including some top contenders in the tournament. By carefully calculating the implied probabilities and identifying edges in the betting lines, they were able to make profitable bets on all eight players, resulting in a total profit of $35,176.
While not every bet is a winner, Peabody emphasized the importance of understanding the risk/reward profile of each wager. By using a formula like the Kelly Criterion to determine optimal bet sizes based on bankroll, bettors can maximize their potential returns. Peabody’s success in the Open Championship demonstrates that this approach can be effective, even for those with smaller bankrolls.
In addition to his winning “No” bets, Peabody also had bets on Xander Schauffele to win the tournament, which further contributed to his overall success. By diversifying his bets and carefully analyzing the odds, Peabody was able to generate profits from multiple angles.
Peabody’s story serves as a reminder that there are different ways to approach sports betting beyond simply picking winners. By taking a calculated and strategic approach, bettors can increase their chances of long-term success. Whether you have a large bankroll like Peabody or a smaller one, the key is to focus on finding value in the betting markets and making informed decisions based on data and analysis.