The Week 5 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody, and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 5 slate, including the Jets and Vikings facing off in London and an AFC North showdown between the Ravens and the Bengals. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Saints and the Chiefs on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jets (2-2) at Vikings (4-0) — London
Jets storyline to watch: This game is all about getting right on offense. The pass protection, especially against the blitz, needs to be a lot sharper than it was last week against the Broncos — five sacks and 14 quarterback hits. The Jets have spent the week drilling down on their blitz pickups and route adjustments, expecting a barrage from the blitz-heavy Vikings. Maybe Rodgers’ familiarity with them will help — he has 17 career wins against the Vikings (tied for the most against Minnesota). — Rich Cimini
Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings are slight favorites to win and go 5-0 to start the season, in large part because of how the Jets’ offense looked in Week 4. New York, which put up only nine points against Denver, didn’t look prepared to handle the kind of play-to-play personnel substitutions the Vikings’ defense typically attempts. Of the 85 teams that have started 5-0 in the Super Bowl era (since 1966), 71 of them have gone on to make the playoffs. The last team that didn’t was the 2016 Vikings, who finished that season 8-8. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has had a touchdown reception in every game this season; with one on Sunday, he can join Randy Moss (2004) as the only players in Vikings history to have a receiving TD in each of team’s first five games.
Bold prediction: The Jets’ defense will hold Minnesota under 21 points. I have faith in the Jets’ corners to hold their own even against Jefferson and Jordan Addison. They could even make quarterback Sam Darnold see a ghost or two. Whether the Jets can score enough to take advantage is another question altogether. — Walder
Injuries: Jets | Vikings
Fantasy X factor: Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson. He had a tough outing last week. Bad weather and a heavy dose of Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II crushed the fantasy hopes of Wilson’s managers. The Vikings’ defense has struggled against wide receivers, allowing the third most fantasy points per game. This sets Wilson up for an epic performance, as he has the opportunity to exploit a softer matchup and bounce back in a big way. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings are the first team in the Super Bowl era to start 4-0 despite not being more than a one-point favorite in any of their first four games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Vikings 21, Jets 14
Moody’s pick: Vikings 27, Jets 16
Walder’s pick: Jets 23, Vikings 17
FPI prediction: MIN, 53.7% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: As Rodgers nears 60K yards, a look at every 10K milestone … Darnold, Vikings’ O earning coach O’Connell’s trust … Rodgers: Relationship with Robert Saleh ‘great’
Panthers (1-3) at Bears (2-2)
Panthers storyline to watch: The Panthers will add two new inside linebackers to the middle of a defense already without Pro Bowl lineman Derrick Brown (knee, out for the season), safety Jordan Fuller (hamstring), and possibly nose tackle Shy Tuttle (foot) due to injuries to Shaq Thompson (Achilles, out for the season) and Josey Jewell (hamstring). That puts even more strain on a unit that has given up a league-most 32.3 points a game, one that ranks 30th in sacks (five) and the bottom of the league in pressures (26). The fortunate thing is the Panthers are facing a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams and an offensive line that is tied for 29th in sacks allowed (16) and the Carolina offense has put up 60 points in the past two games since Andy Dalton took over at QB. — David Newton
Bears storyline to watch: Chicago has an opportunity to keep its new-found success on the ground going against the Panthers’ 29th-ranked run defense. D’Andre Swift finally broke through in both the run (93 yards) and pass game (seven catches, 72 yards) last week and will look to do similar damage against a Carolina defense that is allowing 149 rushing yards per game. At the culmination of Week 5, the Bears will have faced three of the four worst run defenses in the NFL (including the Colts and the Rams) as they look for their eighth straight win at Soldier Field. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: After averaging an NFL-worst 176 yards per game with Bryce Young at QB, the Panthers are averaging the fifth-most YPG (406) with Dalton.
Bold prediction: Williams has his first game with a QBR of more than 60. Why? Williams has yet to get post a game over 40, and Carolina’s pass defense should make life easier, ranking 29th in EPA allowed per opponent dropback. — Walder
Injuries: Panthers | Bears
Fantasy X factor: Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard has racked up 22 or more touches and 22 or more fantasy points in two straight games. He also faces a Bears defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Notable performances include 18.4 points from Tony Pollard, 26.5 from Jonathan Taylor, and 20.4 from Kyren Williams. With this matchup, Hubbard could be in for another big day. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears have covered four straight games when favored (2-0 against the spread this season). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bears 28, Panthers 17
Moody’s pick: Bears 27, Panthers 14
Walder’s pick: Bears 27, Panthers 20
FPI prediction: CHI, 63.3% (by an average of 5.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Panthers’ loss to Bengals is something ‘we can build on’ … Bears P Taylor wins NFC special teams award
Ravens (2-2) at Bengals (1-3)
Ravens storyline to watch: When asked about the key to beating the Bengals, Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey said it comes down to the matchup between Baltimore’s secondary and Cincinnati’s wide receivers. In the Ravens’ four wins over QB Joe Burrow, Baltimore has held Cincinnati’s wide receivers to an average of 119.7 yards. In the Ravens’ three losses to Burrow, Baltimore allowed the Bengals’ wide receivers to average 287.3 yards. — Jamison Hensley
Bengals storyline to watch: This matchup could be dictated by what happened in the offseason. Cincinnati opted to get an interior defensive lineman who was more adept at pass rushing (Sheldon Rankins) than run stopping (DJ Reader). Baltimore has two players, QB Lamar Jackson and new RB Derrick Henry, who are in the top four in the league in rushing yards before first contact, per ESPN Research. — Ben Baby
Stat to know: The Baltimore secondary has allowed a league-high 20 receptions of 20-plus yards.
Bold prediction: Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers bounces back from a cold couple of weeks with a 100-plus-yard receiving performance. Flowers ranks seventh in open score so far, so he should have plenty of targets coming his way. — Walder
Injuries: Ravens | Bengals
Fantasy X factor: Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins. He might not get as much attention as Ja’Marr Chase, but he led the team with 10 targets in Week 4. He has a favorable matchup this week against a Ravens defense that allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Also, Higgins has averaged 12.0 fantasy points per game in regular-season games with Burrow when he gets six or more targets. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bengals were 1-5 ATS in division games last season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 28
Moody’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 27
Walder’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
FPI prediction: BAL, 55.8% (by an average of 2.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Stiff-arming 30: Why Henry’s age-defying play has Ravens back on track … Bengals, Burrow to ‘chase perfection’ in Ravens showdown
Dolphins (1-3) at Patriots (1-3)
Dolphins storyline to watch: The Dolphins will start Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the second consecutive game and feel confident in his ongoing acclimation within this offense. Coach Mike McDaniel said there were, contextually, a lot of positives to take away from Huntley’s performance in Week 4, and just as Huntley learns how to run this offense, Dolphins coaches are also learning how to put him in the best positions to succeed. Huntley might get a bolstered receiving corps to throw to; wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. returned to practice this week and is eligible to be activated for Sunday’s game. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Patriots storyline to watch: Coach Jerod Mayo said he’s strongly considering having Antonio Gibson start over Rhamondre Stevenson at running back, as Stevenson has fumbled in each of the first four games of the season (two recovered by opponents). The Dolphins recovered a fumble in the season opener against the Jaguars but haven’t had one since. Both teams enter the matchup with an even turnover differential — four takeaways and four giveaways. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: This contest will be a matchup between the two lowest-scoring teams in the NFL. Miami is averaging 11.3 points per game and New England is averaging 13.0.
Bold prediction: Patriots defensive lineman Keion White will sack Huntley twice. White got off to a red-hot start with four sacks in the first two games but hasn’t taken down the quarterback since. But I’m still buying as he has a 23% pass rush win rate through four games. We are witnessing the start of a breakout campaign. — Walder
Injuries: Dolphins | Patriots
Fantasy X factor: Stevenson. He started the season off hot, with 23-plus touches and 17-plus fantasy points in each of the first two games. But in the past two? Just 23 touches and 8.5 points combined. The good news? If he starts, he has a much more favorable matchup this week against the Dolphins, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs. He’s back on the RB2 radar. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Patriots 14, Dolphins 12
Moody’s pick: Patriots 23, Dolphins 13
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 20, Patriots 13
FPI prediction: NE, 59.7% (by an average of 3.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Hill committed to Dolphins amid frustrating season … Patriots lose C Andrews to surgery, could make RB change … Mayo sticking with Brissett as starting QB
Browns (1-3) at Commanders (3-1)
Browns storyline to watch: The Browns continue to struggle on offense, and now they face the NFL’s hottest offense, so it’s imperative for Cleveland’s defense to return to its elite 2023 form for the team to have a chance. The Browns have struggled to bring players to the ground, allowing 2.24 yards after contact after rush, the worst mark in the league. The Commanders rank third in rushing yards per game (169.3) and sixth in yards after contact per rush (2.11). — Daniel Oyefusi
Commanders storyline to watch: Washington’s defense played its best game last week against Arizona, holding the Cardinals to 115 total passing yards as it sacked QB Kyler Murray four times. The Commanders prevented him from hurting them off schedule, something they’ll have to do against Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson as well. But the Commanders remain bad versus the run, allowing 5.3 yards per carry, which ranks 31st in the NFL. The Browns rank 17th rushing the ball at 4.3 yards per carry. — John Keim
Stat to know: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels’ four rushing touchdowns are tied for the most by a quarterback through his first four games in NFL history. Cam Newton (2011) and Anthony Richardson (2023) are the only quarterbacks with five rushing touchdowns through five games since 1970.
Bold prediction: Commanders defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne will have big games, with at least 1.5 sacks and five combined tackles between them. With Wyatt Teller (knee) injured, the interior of the Browns’ offensive line is hurting. Christian Wilkins took advantage last week, and Washington’s duo will do the same. — Walder
Injuries: Browns | Commanders
Fantasy X factor: Watson. He has struggled this season, averaging just 13.7 fantasy points per game. Even with top receivers Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy, he hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards in a single game. The Commanders rank sixth in total yards allowed per game and third in points per game. Given that the Commanders allow the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, this could be a prime opportunity for Watson to turn things around. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Overs are 8-2 in Cleveland road games since the start of last season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Commanders 21, Browns 13
Moody’s pick: Commanders 28, Browns 21
Walder’s pick: Commanders 24, Browns 14
FPI prediction: WSH, 63.2% (by an average of 5.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Chubb returns to practice, says knee feels good … Commanders’ Daniels on success: ‘Still a rookie’ … Watson downplays sideline spat: ‘Got to execute’ … Daniels shakes off first INT, keeps Commanders rolling
Colts (2-2) at Jaguars (0-4)
Colts storyline to watch: In one of the NFL’s more confounding streaks, the Colts haven’t won a road game against Jacksonville since 2014. In those nine meetings, including a 2016 London game for which the Jaguars were designated as the home team, the Colts were shut out twice and were outscored by an average of 16 points per game. How? Turnovers, for one. Jacksonville has a plus-15 margin in those games. — Stephen Holder
Jaguars storyline to watch: The Jaguars remain the only team that hasn’t forced a turnover on defense this season (they recovered a muffed punt last week for their only turnover so far), which makes for an interesting dilemma against the Colts. QB Anthony Richardson — who injured his hip last week and was limited in practice — has thrown a league-high six interceptions, but his running ability, arm strength, and potential for big plays make him dangerous. Backup QB Joe Flacco isn’t going to run around, but he shredded the Jaguars last season with the Browns (311 yards and three TDs). — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: The Colts’ past six games have been decided by single digits, which is the second-longest active streak in the NFL (the Chiefs lead with seven).
Bold prediction: Richardson will throw at least two interceptions. The Colts might be missing Jonathan Taylor (ankle), and the Jaguars are good at stopping the run, so Indianapolis might lean on its aerial attack. Richardson can make special plays, but his accuracy remains a major concern. He has the lowest completion percentage over expectation (minus-15%) among qualifying quarterbacks this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Injuries: Colts | Jaguars
Fantasy X factor: Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. The rookie had a breakout performance in Week 4, with a career-high nine targets and 21.9 fantasy points. Thomas has run the third-most routes (108) on the Jaguars, but he has been highly efficient with his opportunities. This week, he faces a Colts defense that gives up the fourth-most receptions and fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Thomas is a high-end flex option with immense upside. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jaguars could be the first 0-4 or worse team to close as favorites since 2020. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Colts 28, Jaguars 24
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 23, Colts 21
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 30, Colts 13
FPI prediction: JAX, 50.7% (by an average of 0.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Should Richardson not run as much? … Is the Jaguars’ season salvageable after 0-4 start?
Bills (3-1) at Texans (3-1)
Bills storyline to watch: It may only be Week 5, but the Bills’ defense is already dealing with a variety of challenges, the latest coming with Von Miller’s four-game suspension this week. While middle linebacker Terrel Bernard (pectoral) has a good chance to make it back to the field after missing two games, Buffalo will likely see rookie safety Cole Bishop make his first NFL start — Taylor Rapp is in concussion protocol — while rookie Javon Solomon will see more of a role on the line with Miller out. A tough task will await in the Texans’ offense with QB C.J. Stroud throwing seven passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in his past five home games. — Alaina Getzenberg
Texans storyline to watch: Coach DeMeco Ryans said the Texans are “fired up” for this matchup but said his club won’t lean into the storyline of two AFC contenders. The Bills have the third-highest point differential in the NFL (plus-39), while the Texans are 24th (minus-15), showing the Bills have been more complete through four weeks. The Texans have three wins, but each victory was secured in the last minute after they played sloppy throughout. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know
